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Stock market preview – investors are facing troubled autumn News

Saturday, September 2nd, 2017 | Economy

"Markets will sooner or later demand solutions – for the strong euro, the unpredictable North Korean regime, and the financing of Donald Trump's election promises," says analyst Jochen Stanzl from the online broker CMC Markets. "A mere avoidance of a further deterioration of the situation is no justification for rising prices." In the old week, the Dax lost 0.2 percent.
The Swiss Market Index (SMI) closed Friday at 0.18 percent higher on 8'941.62 points (daily 8'917), resulting in an annual gain of 0.4 percent. The 30-share Swiss Leader Index (SLI), which does not contain the largest weightings, rose by 0.35 percent to 1,427.32 and the broad Swiss Performance Index (SPI) by 0.23 percent to 10'200.85 counter.
Investors are looking forward to the ECB's meeting on Thursday. They hope that the head of the bank, Mario Draghi, will provide guidance on monetary policy in parallel to the latest economic and inflation forecasts for his company.
He will probably indicate a reduction in the monthly borrowing of currently 60 billion euros, says Commerzbank economist Michael Schubert. "The ECB will, however, be very cautious in this regard, and the greatest possible flexibility will be maintained at every step." For the central bank wanted to prevent a further appreciation of the euro. Since the beginning of the year, the currency has grown by about 13 percent to just under 1.19 dollars.
In the USA, too, the Börsians are following the performances of many leading US banknotes in the new week with Argusaugen. The Fed is expecting signals to cut the billion-strong securities stocks and the next rate hike.
Disarmed "Harvey" the US household?
In the USA, the parliamentary summer break ends on Monday with the holiday "Labor Day". "By October 1, the US Congress must decide to extend the 2018 budget or extend the existing law," says Martin Lück, Chief Investment Advisor for Germany, Austria and Eastern Europe with the world's largest asset manager, Blackrock. "In addition, the debt ceiling could be reached again at the end of September, at the latest at the beginning of October."
Without an increase, salaries of state servants can no longer be paid and debts can no longer be served. US President Trump had threatened a government cease-fire if Parliament did not release any funds to build the planned wall on the border with Mexico.
The probability of this is low, says Beth Ann Bovino, chief economist of the rating agency Standard & Poor's (S & P). The hurricane "Harvey" with its devastation and flooding could pave the way for a rapid agreement in the budgetary debate. "But betting on a sensible US government can be risky." Each week of a "government shutdown" narrowed US economic growth by 0.2 percentage points.
For Börsians even more unpredictable is the development of the dispute between the USA and North Korea. After a period of relative calm, North Korea again tested a rocket in the old week. Trump then denied further diplomatic efforts. His defense minister Jim Mattis, however, stressed that the diplomatic possibilities were not yet exhausted.
Many data are waiting for investors
Experts, on the other hand, do not expect surprises from the Bundestag election campaign. Its hot phase rings the TV duel between Federal Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) and their challenger Martin Schulz (SPD) on Sunday.
In addition, a large number of economic data will keep investors in the new week on the go. In Germany, the barometer for the mood of the purchasing managers (Tuesday), the orders received by industry (Wednesday) and industrial production (Thursday) are on the schedule. At the European level, Börsians are expecting figures on retail sales (Tuesday). In the USA, the order intake for long-lived goods will be published on Tuesday. In addition, the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Seco will present GDP estimates for the second quarter on Tuesday and the labor market data for August on Friday.
In addition, there are some business figures of listed Swiss companies: Helvetia, Hiag Immobilien, Varia US, Villars (Monday), BKW, Swiss Exhibition, Santhera (Tuesday), Jungfraubahn (Thursday).
(Reuters / AWP)


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