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SPD according to a new survey only eight per cent ahead of AfD

Thursday, September 14th, 2017 | World News

Despite the recent survey shock, SPD chancellor candidate Martin Schulz continues to be secure. In the ARD "Deutschlandtrend" his party came to only 20 per cent.

"Dear competitors, do not look forward to early, you will not get small", he said in an election campaign at the Marienplatz in Munich, although it is true that Germany is doing well as Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU). "Germany can do more if a Social Democrat is a Federal Chancellor."

"We will win the election"
"Our program is better, so we will win the election," Schulz emphasized. Repeatedly, he called Merkel to face a second TV duel. There he wanted to speak in public with her about future topics such as education, digitization and armament spending. "On land, on the water and in the air, I am in a new duel that deserves the name," Schulz said. Recently, the CDU had spoken out against a second TV duel with Schulz.

Martin Schulz is fighting at a rally at the Marienplatz in Munich. (Source: Michaela Rehle / Reuters)

Just a week and a half before the Bundestag election the Social Democrats lost one percentage point in the ARD "Deutschlandtrend" and are currently only 20 percent. This is their weakest since January.

 In the survey published on Thursday, the SPD is only 8 percentage points ahead of the AfD, which comes to 12 percent (plus 1). The Union as the strongest party remains at 37 percent. The FDP advances to 9.5 with 9.5 percent (plus 0.5). The left is losing slightly and comes to 9 per cent (minus 1), the Greens to 7.5 per cent (minus 0.5).

Merkel in chancellor question in front
In the purely theoretical case of a direct election of the chancellor, Chancellor Angela Merkel is still far ahead. However, with a 51 per cent (minus 3), it is slightly more positive than SPD chancellor candidate Martin Schulz with 25 per cent (-1).

With these figures, there would not be a majority for further two alliances alongside a large coalition. A so-called Jamaica coalition from CDU, FDP and Greens would be possible by triple alliances. Both FDP and Greens, however, have described this as very unlikely.

        
    

When it comes to future coalitions, unions and SPD supporters are divided. In a decision between a Grand Coalition and a Jamaica coalition after the election, 45 per cent of the Union's supporters would opt for a new alliance with the SPD while 46 per cent would be for Jamaica. For the SPD supporters, a small majority of 50 per cent would be a large coalition with the Union, while 46 per cent would be in the opposition.

According to the survey, only 57 per cent of all eligible voters are already voting. According to the Infratest dimap, 1003 voting rights were questioned nationwide from Tuesday to Wednesday.

Researchers predict black-yellow ahead
In contrast, two political scientists have done different calculations. Thomas Gschwend of the University of Mannheim and Helmut Norpoth of the University of Stony Brook in New York tried to predict the most likely coalition. Merkel could therefore rule with the FDP: for black and yellow, with a 88 percent probability, a second vote of 49.4 percent is to be expected, according to the survey, which is available to the German Press Agency in Berlin. A new edition of the grand coalition or a Jamaica alliance is also possible; even black-green, the researchers grant good chances.

The professors use their own formula for their prognosis, the so-called Kanzlerermodell. The calculation mainly involves three factors: the popularity of the official in surveys, the long-term support of the parties in the previous Bundestag elections, and the "wear-and-tear" process of the office holder on the basis of the completed office periods.

Using statistical methods, Gschwend and Norpoth calculate how the interaction of the three factors is to be weighted and how they affect the voting. The formula had worked for the first time 15 years ago, when, contrary to the polls, it predicted exactly the red-green red-green under Gerhard Schröder. However, there was also criticism of the method after the 2005 election.

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