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Old-age provision in 2020 is a small majority News

Friday, August 18th, 2017 | Economy

The time is ripe for a compromise, is the tenor. Specifically, at the beginning of August, a brief, absolute majority of 53 per cent had agreed to the two individual pension plans – both the obligatory referendum on VAT and the optional referendum on the actual reform of old-age provision in 2020.
41 percent of eligible voters would be against the increase in VAT, 42 percent would be against the reform. 5 and 6 percent are still undecided. This can be seen in the first of two trend surveys on the course of polls on September 24, which the research institute gfs.bern carried out on behalf of the SRG media.
However, even if the SRG trend survey is the same as many respondents saying yes to increase VAT as well as to reform, do not judge all the two individual templates the same.
Although, in the case of the rejection of the one submission, the other submission would have lapsed and the pre-retirement form would have failed, 7 percent of those willing to participate would accept the increase in VAT but would reject the reform. A further 7 percent say exactly the opposite. In a survey conducted by the media group Tamedia, which was published on 9 August, only the increase in VAT had found a majority, while the AHV reform law was passed by the interviewees.
Not yet consolidated
However, the authors of the SRG survey assume that there will be fewer voters before the polls, which differ from the two templates. Because the opinion is not yet solidified at the present time, but according to the authors "advanced".
The most widely shared pro argument is the conviction that after twenty years, without a successful reform period, it will reach a compromise (71 percent or more). Likewise, the majority of the arguments are that the increase in the AHV pension benefits deep and medium-sized incomes (54 per cent) and that the reform is balanced (51 per cent).
The pro argument that reforms can stop the unjust distribution from young to old is, however, by no clear majority (62 per cent) believing. At the same time, an important argument on the part of the counterparty, according to which the boys are too heavily burdened by the reform, finds no majority (53 per cent more or not at all).
The opponents have another popular argument: 59 percent agree that the increase in AHV with the watering can also benefits those who are not dependent on it. Only bare absolute majorities receive the counter-arguments that the reform will not secure the pensions in the future (52 per cent) and that the age of women is not to be increased without simultaneous equal pay (51 per cent).
Clear majorities at SP, CVP and Greens
The survey also shows that the conflict patterns are "predominantly politically determined" in the debate on pension provision. Clear majorities for the reform are evident in the SP parti- cipants (74 percent, or more), CVP (69 percent) and Greens (66 percent).
On the other hand, among the SVP and FDP sympathizers, whose parties are actively engaged in the reform, the survey suggests that there are only a few majorities against the package. On the SVP basis, 55 percent say "yes" or rather "no" to Alain Berset's project, with the FDP base being only 51 percent.
Among the non-party members, according to the survey, the vote was overwhelming, albeit less strongly than in the middle-left parties.
Contrary to the assumption that the old-age reform is only a weak one, the age conflict is only weak. Younger are more undecided. Both 40- to 64-year-olds as well as persons in retirement age want to agree to the majority.
Women are skeptical about reform
In the case of women, a rejection of the reform is slightly more widespread than in men. Nevertheless, a very thin majority of the participating women would agree yes – even if the women's age is increased to 65 in the case of a yes to reform.
Relatively unquestioned seems the new constitutional determination on food security. At the beginning of August, almost two-thirds of those willing to take part in the vote voted at 65 per cent, or voted more for the federal decision on food security. 18 per cent would have been against it and only 17 per cent were still undecided.
It is controversial whether it needs a constitutional article for the security of supply in Switzerland: 45 percent agree, 51 percent reject it.
For the SRG trend survey, a total of 1205 representative voting voters were interviewed between 31 July and 10 August. The statistical uncertainty range is plus / minus 2.9 percent.


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