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Economy – Swiss GDP is growing in the second quarter under expectations News

Tuesday, September 5th, 2017 | Economy

Experts were disappointed. The real gross domestic product (GDP) rose by only 0.3% compared to the previous quarter. Compared to the same quarter of the previous year, it was also 0.3%. The figures are thus even lower than the previous year's comparison in the previous quarter of the economist's estimates. Experts surveyed by AWP estimated that growth in the previous quarter was + 0.3% to + 0.6% and the previous year's comparison was + 0.8% to + 1.1%.
Private consumption falls morderat
The main reason for the disappointing GDP growth in the second quarter is the deep growth of private consumption, said Ronald Indergand, head of the Department of Economic Affairs of the Economic Policy Directorate at Seco against AWP. "The reason for this is the restrained labor market, which does not get on its way," says Indergand.
In order to achieve stronger GDP growth again, employment should therefore also grow more strongly. "This in turn would boost private consumption," says Indergand. Overall, the low growth is ultimately astonishing as industries such as industry and the hospitality industry have already recovered strongly from the franc shock, he continued.
Further reasons for the disappointing GDP growth in the second quarter are, according to the Seco: the service sector – particularly the domestic sectors, such as the sectors close to the state or the retail sector – have been weak.
Also other quarters corrected
Seco also presented the revised GDP figures for the past quarters on Tuesday. GDP growth in the first quarter was reduced from 0.3 to 0.1 percent, and in the fourth quarter of 2016, the key figure slipped to -0.2 percent. For Claude Maurer, Head of Economic Analysis at Credit Suisse, this is the even greater disappointment than the low growth in the second quarter, as he said against AWP video.
Nevertheless, Maurer is optimistic about the future. Although it is currently "on the cards", it is likely to be "tricky" to predict the future economic cycle. But the recovery trend would continue, he said.
New momentum expected
Analysts at VP Bank also set their hopes on the second half of the year. The depreciation of the Swiss franc and the well-running economy in the Eurozone speak for a ride, according to a communication. This is supported by the still very optimistic outlook of the Purchasing Managers' Surveys.
According to BAKBasel, the chances are good that the latest depreciation tendencies in the Swiss franc, combined with the robust economy of European trading partners, will provide new momentum in the second half of the year.
For the full year 2017, the Federal Government's experts forecast a GDP growth of 1.4 percent in June. In two weeks they will present their current forecast.


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