Home » Economy » Economic situation – SNB and BAK expect GDP to grow by 2017 | News

Economic situation – SNB and BAK expect GDP to grow by 2017 | News

Thursday, September 14th, 2017 | Economy

Reason for the adjustments are the low GDP values ​​from the previous quarters. The prospects for the coming months are good.
The SNB lowered its forecasts from "around 1.5%" to "just under 1.0%" as part of its monetary policy assessment. In 2017, BAK Economics expects the real gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 1.0% instead of the previous 1.4%. As justification for their adjustments, the SNB and BAK Economics report the revised values ​​in the quarterly estimates.
They thus justify this with figures presented by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (Seco) last week. GDP growth in the first quarter fell from 0.3 to 0.1 percent, and in the fourth quarter of 2016, the key figure slipped to -0.2 percent. Claude Maurer, Head of Economic Analysis at Credit Suisse, had said this against AWP video as "big disappointment".
Experts remain optimistic for 2018
Despite the reduction in the numbers, the SNB remains optimistic about the future. It still sees the Swiss economy on a recovery course, even if it classifies it as "moderate". The economy is benefiting from the strengthening of the international economy, says the statement on the assessment of the situation.
The dynamics of commodity exports had revived, which supported industrial activity. As a result, the utilization of production capacities is increasing, and companies' willingness to invest is gradually increasing. The SNB did not provide a concrete forecast for 2018 as usual at this time.
The forecast of the BAK economists is clearly positive. For 2018 they are expecting an increase of 2.3% instead of 1.8%. As early as the second half of 2017, a "clear economic acceleration" is to be expected, it is said. Both the domestic economy and the Swiss export sector would gain momentum in the coming months and quarters.
Exports benefit Swiss industry from the robust economy in the euro area as well as from the recent depreciation of the Swiss franc. Therefore, the economic research institute should also expect a significant acceleration in equipment investments.
Consumption should benefit
Consumption should also benefit from the good labor market development, according to BAK experts. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate will fall to 3.0% in 2018. In addition, wages are expected to rise again, which is expected to boost expenditures.
Despite the fundamentally positive outlook, however, certain risks remain. The SNB stresses, for example: "In particular, geopolitical factors or uncertainties about the future monetary policy of the leading central banks could weaken the prospects again."
Next week, Seco will present its current GDP forecasts. For the full year 2017, the experts of the Confederation forecast a growth of 1.4% in June. The forecasts of other institutes are currently between 1.3% and 1.7%.
(AWP)

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